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Banco de la República busca mantener a ‘raya’ la inflación en Colombia

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Como ya es usual, este viernes 27 de mayo la Junta Directiva del Banco de la República se reunirá para decidir si continúa con la política monetaria alcista, es decir, si sigue subiendo las tasas de interés, mecanismo mediante el cual ha aumentado su tasa de intervención en los últimos meses de manera interrumpida.

En la actualidad la tasa del banco este en 7% tras una serie de alzas que empezaron en septiembre de año pasado cuando se situaba en 4,5%. Esta tasa representa el interés que le cobra el Emisor a la banca privada por financiarla.

Cabe señalar, que la tasa de intervención en 7 por ciento representa la segunda más alta de la Región, después de la de Brasil, y su objetivo es controlar la inflación, que en el caso de Colombia está en un rango entre el 2% y el 4%.

En los últimos 12 meses, la variación del IPC va en 7,93%, es decir, que la principal preocupación del Banco Central es mantener el costo de vida a raya, que no suba la inflación. Lo cierto es que la intervención del Emisor se ha sentido en el día a día de los ciudadanos.

En ese sentido, el primer efecto que ha causado en los ciudadanos es el incremento de las tasas de interés de los bancos comerciales, lo que significa que los costos  de todo tipo de crédito en Colombia han aumentado, pues su tasa de colocación promedio ha subido desde el 11% (promedio en el que se encontraba en 2015) hasta el 15,20% este año.   

Con esto, el Emisor busca que personas y empresas se endeuden menos para consumir e invertir, pues se necesita reducir el exceso de gasto sobre el ingreso nacional, es decir, el déficit de cuenta corriente.

Hay que señalar, que analistas consultados indican que la meta de mantener a raya se ha cumplido parcialmente, ya que al revisar el crecimiento de crédito de consumo en términos reales se evidencia que del 8 % en abril de 2015 el crecimiento pasó al 3,4% en el cuarto mes de este año, es decir, que los ciudadanos y las empresas han reducido las solicitudes de crédito a la banca comercial.

“Todos los créditos se han desacelerado, pero ese es el que más ha mermado su ritmo y es el que consume el ciudadano de a pie. La gente no se quiere endeudar porque es más caro y porque le da miedo, pues la desaceleración económica y sus consecuencias, como la inestabilidad laboral, siembran temores”, explica Camila Pérez, directora de análisis macroeconómico y sectorial de Fedesarrollo.

Por su parte, otro efecto es que el Banco de la República ha dicho que su política busca anclar de nuevo la inflación; sin embargo, el incremento hace que a productores, comerciantes e importadores les cueste más el acceso a capital y éstos trasladan ese sobrecosto a los clientes a manera de precio.

En ese sentido, el Emisor contribuye a la disminución de la demanda de bienes como electrodomésticos y vehículos, lo que, a su vez, previene que éstos suban más de lo debido. Así espera el Banco Central cumplir con su principal objetivo de mantener a raya la inflación.

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